155 is completely
fucked. There are three guys walking around with championship belts, and a
backlog of contenders crowding at the gates waiting for their shot at the
title. Meanwhile the division's biggest star is undecided about returning, and
won't do it unless everything is right for him. It is therefore unclear what
match-ups will and won't happen. But if the MMA gods are fair, I hope they
grant us Ferguson vs Khabib.
This fight has been
promised before, and each time a freak accident derailed what was sure to be a
classic. Sure, the fight would be a fun one to watch. It has all the right ingredients:
neither guy gets tired, both are well rounded, both rely on attacks and
steadily breaking opponents. All that adds up to a "Fight of the
Night" bonus for both guys, and maybe even be a "Fight of the
Year" candidate. That the fight will likely be fireworks is without
question, but the real intrigue about this fight is How will Tony fare off his
back?
The guard in MMA has
lost a little luster over the years. Some have argued that its lack of
appreciation by the judges that has caused the guard to all but disappear in
MMA. I've read articles saying Jiu Jitsu's progression into a specialized sport
rather than a martial art based on self-defense is why many decorated Jiu Jitsu
fighters struggle in the cage. The Unified Rules of MMA may even bear some of
the blame, but the fact remains that fighting from the guard is not a preferred
place to be in Mixed Martial Arts.
There are a number of
fighters that prove me wrong in this instance, but for the most part MMA
fighters don't like the guard. Fighters focus more on avoiding the takedowns in
the first place, or getting back up by wall-walking whenever they land on their
back. But then there is Khabib Nurmagomedov. There is no avoiding the takedown;
there is no wall walking. This strategy has been tried 27 times; it has failed
27 times.
But Tony is different.
Tony's relentless offense style is what makes him a fan favorite inside the
Octagon. He attacks with kicks, punches, elbows, knees, forearms, and is never
afraid to open up. That same style doesn't end when the fight goes to the ground
either. Time after time Tony has shown he is more than a wrestler-turned-striker.
A fantastic finisher, Ferguson is happy to end the fight by either knockout or
submission.
This offensive-heavy
style got him in trouble many times in the past, both in striking and
grappling. He's been dropped multiple times in fights. Against Kevin Lee he
wound up mounted, and against Danny Castillo he found himself defending a side
choke at the final bell. Still, Kevin Lee got triangled and Castillo was forced
to play defense throughout the majority of the fight. Typical Tony Ferguson-
offense at the risk of defeat.
Ferguson's hips allow
him to take the risks he takes when on the ground. When fighters find
themselves in dominant positions against him, they rarely mount any offense.
Kevin Lee had the mount and landed decent shots, but nothing of real
consequence while Tony recovered his guard. Josh Thomson, a tremendous
grappler, found little success from the top position. Ferguson's offense keeps
fighters on the defense, and his ability to recover and immediately mount his
attack is taxing for anyone on top. Tony will give up position, but trying to
keep position on him has proven to be exhausting and so far, futile.
The question is, can
Tony afford to give position to Khabib? Will he have to be more defensive
against such an exceptionally dominant wrestler? Or will Tony utilize this
style to wear down the Russian? I don't know, but whether for a belt or
not, I hope one day to gladly tune in to the ESPN app and find out.
